{"id":3575,"date":"2024-12-14T12:55:16","date_gmt":"2024-12-14T04:55:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.dm-yq.com\/?p=3575"},"modified":"2024-12-14T12:55:16","modified_gmt":"2024-12-14T04:55:16","slug":"%e9%80%9a%e8%b4%a7%e8%86%a8%e8%83%80%e5%8d%b3%e5%b0%86%e6%9d%a5%e4%b8%b4%ef%bc%8c%e8%bf%99%e6%98%af%e6%af%94%e7%89%b9%e5%b8%81%e7%9f%ad%e6%9a%82%e5%8e%86%e5%8f%b2%e4%b8%ad%e6%9c%80%e5%a4%a7%e7%9a%84","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.dm-yq.com\/?p=3575","title":{"rendered":"\u901a\u8d27\u81a8\u80c0\u5373\u5c06\u6765\u4e34\uff0c\u8fd9\u662f\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\u77ed\u6682\u5386\u53f2\u4e2d\u6700\u5927\u7684\u673a\u4f1a"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\n\t\u8457\u540d\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\u671f\u8d27\u5408\u7ea6\u4ea4\u6613\u6240BitMEX\u91ca\u51fa\u7684\u6700\u65b0\u7f51\u5fd7\uff0c\u5bf9\u76ee\u524d\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u653f\u7b56\u4f5c\u51fa\u8bc4\u8bba\uff0c\u4e5f\u9884\u6d4b\u8fd9\u5c06\u662f\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\u77ed\u6682\u751f\u547d\u4e2d\u6700\u5927\u7684\u673a\u4f1a\u70b9\u3002<\/p>\n<h3>\n\t\u6458\u8981\uff1a<\/h3>\n<p>\n\t\u6211\u4eec\u8bc4\u4f30\u51a0\u72b6\u75c5\u6bd2\u5bf9\u7ecf\u6d4e\u548c\u91d1\u878d\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u3002\u4ece\u75c5\u6bd2\u653f\u7b56\u5230\u592e\u884c\u8d44\u52a9\u7684\u8d22\u653f\u6269\u5f20\uff08fiscal expansion\uff09\u5bf9\u75c5\u6bd2\u75ab\u60c5\u7684\u53cd\u5e94\uff0c\u5c06\u51f8\u663e\u91cd\u5927\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u5236\u53d8\u5316\u3002\u5230\u6700\u540e\uff0c\u5728\u8fd9\u79cd\u65b0\u4f53\u5236\u4e0b\u5c06\u6709\u4e00\u4e2a\u660e\u663e\u7684\u8d62\u5bb6\uff1a\u901a\u8d27\u81a8\u80c0\u3002\u73b0\u5728\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5f62\u52bf\u53ef\u80fd\u770b\u8d77\u6765\u50cf\u662f1970\u5e74\u4ee3\uff0c\u5bf9\u4e8e\u901a\u8d27\u81a8\u80c0\u7684\u9884\u671f\u5e76\u4e0d\u7a33\u5b9a\u3002\u653f\u6743\u8f6c\u79fb\u548c\u901a\u8d27\u81a8\u80c0\u5c06\u662f\u91d1\u878d\u5e02\u573a\u96be\u4ee5\u5bb9\u5fcd\u7684\u3002\u5728\u8fd9\u79cd\u73af\u5883\u4e0b\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u5728\u77ed\u671f\u5185\u4e3a\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\u63d0\u4f9b\u6700\u5927\u7684\u673a\u4f1a\u3002<\/p>\n<figure aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-9295\" id=\"attachment_9295\">\n\t<img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"\" src=\"https:\/\/www.wwsww.cn\/uploads\/200319\/1-2003191P55NV.jpg\" style=\"width: 460px;height: 469px\" \/><br \/><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-9295\">source:BitMEX<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<h3>\n\t\u51a0\u72b6\u75c5\u6bd2\u5f15\u53d1\u7684\u91d1\u878d\u5e02\u573a\u5d29\u6e83<\/h3>\n<p>\n\t2020\u5e74\u51a0\u72b6\u75c5\u6bd2\u5f15\u8d77\u7684\u80a1\u7968\u5e02\u573a\u5d29\u6e83\uff0c\u73b0\u5728\u5df2\u6210\u4e3a\u5386\u53f2\u91cd\u5927\u80a1\u707e\u4e4b\u4e00\uff0c\u5176\u4ed6\u8fd8\u6709\uff1a<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\n\t\t\u5168\u7403\u91d1\u878d\u5371\u673a\uff082008\uff09<\/li>\n<li>\n\t\t\u7f51\u9645\u7f51\u8def\u6ce1\u6cab\uff082000\uff09<\/li>\n<li>\n\t\t\u4e9a\u6d32\u5371\u673a\uff081997\uff09<\/li>\n<li>\n\t\t\u9ed1\u8272\u661f\u671f\u4e09\uff081992\uff09<\/li>\n<li>\n\t\t\u65e5\u672c\u8d44\u4ea7\u6ce1\u6cab\uff081991\uff09<\/li>\n<li>\n\t\t\u9ed1\u8272\u661f\u671f\u4e00\uff081987\uff09<\/li>\n<li>\n\t\t\u77f3\u6cb9\u5371\u673a\uff081973\uff09<\/li>\n<li>\n\t\t\u534e\u5c14\u8857\u5d29\u6e83\uff081929\uff09<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\n\t2020\u5e743\u670817 \u65e5\uff0c\u6ce2\u52a8\u7387\u6307\u6570\uff08VIX\uff09\u8fbe\u523084.83\u7684\u9ad8\u4f4d\uff0c\u4ec5\u7565\u4f4e\u4e8e2008\u5e74\u5168\u7403\u91d1\u878d\u5371\u673a\u8fbe\u5230\u7684\u5cf0\u503c89.53\u3002\u5728\u64b0\u5199\u672c\u6587\u65f6\uff0c\u4ece\u9ad8\u5cf0\u5230\u4f4e\u8c37\uff0c\u6807\u51c6\u666e\u5c14500\u6307\u6570\u57282020\u5e74\u4e0b\u8dcc\u4e8630\uff05\u4ee5\u4e0a\uff0c\u9053\u743c\u5de5\u4e1a\u5e73\u5747\u6307\u6570\u521b\u4e0b\u81ea1987\u5e74\u7684\u9ed1\u8272\u661f\u671f\u4e00\u4ee5\u6765\u6700\u5927\u5355\u65e5\u8dcc\u5e45\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\n\t\u4ece\u91d1\u878d\u7684\u89d2\u5ea6\u6765\u770b\uff0c2020\u5e74\u7684\u51a0\u72b6\u75c5\u6bd2\u5371\u673a\u5fc5\u7136\u4f1a\u88ab\u5199\u5165\u5386\u53f2\u4e4b\u4e2d\u3002\u6bd4\u8fc7\u53bb\u4efb\u4f55\u65f6\u5019\u6295\u5165\u66f4\u591a\u6760\u6746\u7684\u8d44\u4ea7\u7ba1\u7406\u8005\u5df2\u7ecf\u9677\u5165\u5371\u673a\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u6b63\u62fc\u547d\u4e89\u593a\u4fdd\u4f4f\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u8fd9\u4f7f\u5f97\u51e0\u4e4e\u6240\u6709\u8d44\u4ea7\u4ef7\u683c\u90fd\u5448\u87ba\u65cb\u5f62\u4e0b\u964d\uff0c\u4ece\u80a1\u7968\u5230\u5927\u5b97\u5546\u54c1\u3001\u4ece\u975e\u653f\u5e9c\u503a\u5238\u5230\u52a0\u5bc6\u8d27\u5e01\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\n\t\u4e2d\u592e\u94f6\u884c\u548c\u653f\u5e9c\u4e00\u76f4\u5728\u8fc5\u901f\u4f5c\u51fa\u53cd\u5e94\u3002\u5728\u7f8e\u56fd\uff0c\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u5c06\u5229\u7387\u964d\u4f4e\u81f3\u63a5\u8fd1\u96f6\uff080\uff05\u81f30.25\uff05\uff09\uff0c\u5ba3\u5e03\u8d2d\u4e70\u81f3\u5c115,000\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u503a\u548c\u4ef7\u503c2,000\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\u7531\u503a\u5238\u652f\u6301\u7684\u62b5\u62bc\u8d37\u6b3e\uff0c\u5e76\u5c06\u5546\u4e1a\u94f6\u884c\u7684\u50a8\u5907\u91d1\u8981\u6c42\u964d\u4f4e\u81f3\u96f6\u3002\u800c\u4e14\u53ef\u80fd\u8fd8\u4f1a\u6709\u66f4\u591a\u63aa\u65bd\u51fa\u73b0\u3002\u4f46\u662f\uff0c\u73b0\u5728\u8d8a\u6765\u8d8a\u6e05\u695a\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u8fd9\u662f\u592e\u884c\u884c\u957f\u6700\u540e\u8d4c\u8fd0\u6c14\u3002\u53ea\u6709\u8d27\u5e01\u653f\u7b56\u662f\u4e0d\u591f\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n<h3>\n\t\u4e2d\u592e\u94f6\u884c\u5df2\u8d70\u5230\u5c3d\u5934<\/h3>\n<p>\n\t\u4e2d\u592e\u94f6\u884c\u5df2\u7ecf\u8fbe\u5230\u80fd\u529b\u6781\u9650\u7684\u8bf4\u6cd5\uff0c\u5e76\u4e0d\u8fc7\u65f6\u3002\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u662f\u5728\u592e\u884c\u884c\u957f\u4e4b\u95f4\uff0c\u73b0\u5728\u90fd\u5df2\u7ecf\u6210\u4e3a\u5171\u8bc6\u3002\u4f60\u53ef\u4ee5\u9009\u62e9\u4ee5\u4e0b\u81ea\u5df1\u559c\u6b22\u7684\u8bba\u70b9\uff08\u6216\u591a\u91cd\u9009\u62e9\uff09\uff1a<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\n\t\t\u5229\u7387\u5df2\u7ecf\u5904\u4e8e\u4e0b\u9650\u3002\u4e0b\u9650\u662f0\uff05\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u5982\u679c\u6211\u4eec\u518d\u5f80\u4e0b\uff0c\u5927\u4f17\u5c06\u53ea\u662f\u56e4\u79ef\u5b9e\u7269\u73b0\u91d1\u3002<\/li>\n<li>\n\t\t\u8d2d\u4e70\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u653f\u5e9c\u503a\u5238\u53ea\u80fd\u5728\u6d41\u52a8\u6027\u5371\u673a\u4e2d\u5e2e\u5230\u5546\u4e1a\u94f6\u884c\uff0c\u73b0\u5728\uff0c\u5b9e\u4f53\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7684\u8d27\u5e01\u653f\u7b56\u4f20\u5bfc\u673a\u5236\u5df2\u88ab\u7834\u574f\u3002<\/li>\n<li>\n\t\t\u6211\u4eec\u5df2\u7ecf\u8fbe\u5230\u300c\u9006\u8f6c\u5229\u7387\u300d\uff0c\u7531\u4e8e\u51c0\u606f\u5dee\u964d\u4f4e\uff0c\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u964d\u606f\u5bf9\u5546\u4e1a\u94f6\u884c\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u4e3a\u51c0\u8d1f\u6570\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u8f83\u4f4e\u7684\u5229\u7387\u4f1a\u5bfc\u81f4\u7ecf\u6d4e\u75b2\u8f6f\u3002(&nbsp;\u6ce8\uff1a\u5f53\u592e\u884c\u5c06\u5229\u7387\u964d\u4f4e\u5230\u67d0\u79cd\u7a0b\u5ea6\uff0c\u53cd\u800c\u4f1a\u635f\u5bb3\u94f6\u884c\u4e1a\u83b7\u5229\u3001\u964d\u4f4e\u94f6\u884c\u4e1a\u653e\u8d37\u610f\u613f\uff0c\u8fdb\u800c\u4f24\u5bb3\u5230\u5b9e\u4f53\u7ecf\u6d4e\u3002&nbsp;)<\/li>\n<li>\n\t\t\u6211\u4eec\u5df2\u7ecf\u8fbe\u5230\u4e86\u592e\u884c\u6269\u5f20\u6027\u8d27\u5e01\u653f\u7b56\u7684\u884c\u4e3a\u6781\u9650\uff0c\u4efb\u4f55\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u7684\u6781\u7aef\u63aa\u65bd\u90fd\u4f1a\u7ed9\u6d88\u8d39\u8005\u5e26\u6765\u8d1f\u9762\u8baf\u53f7\uff0c\u5e76\u5bf9\u5b9e\u4f53\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4ea7\u751f\u51c0\u503c\u8d1f\u9762\u6548\u76ca\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\n\t\u4e0a\u8ff0\u8bba\u70b9\u8d8a\u6765\u8d8a\u5f15\u4eba\u6ce8\u76ee\u3002\u4e2d\u592e\u94f6\u884c\u672c\u8eab\u7684\u8baf\u606f\u73b0\u5728\u975e\u5e38\u660e\u786e\uff1a<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p>\n\t\t\u73b0\u5728\u662f\u91c7\u53d6\u8d22\u653f\u523a\u6fc0\u63aa\u65bd\u7684\u65f6\u5019\u4e86<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>\n\t\uff08\u6765\u6e90\uff1aFT\uff09<\/p>\n<h3>\n\t\u6211\u4eec\u662f\u5426\u5728\u6b63\u786e\u7684\u9053\u8def\u4e0a\uff1f<\/h3>\n<p>\n\t\u4e5f\u8bb8\u7740\u91cd\u5728\u4e00\u4e2a\u66f4\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u8bae\u9898\u662f\uff0c\u5404\u56fd\u592e\u884c\u662f\u5426\u4e00\u5f00\u59cb\u5c31\u8d70\u4e0a\u4e86\u6b63\u786e\u7684\u9053\u8def\u30022000\u5e74\u7f51\u9645\u7f51\u8def\u6ce1\u6cab\u7684\u5904\u7406\u65b9\u5f0f\u662f\u5c06\u5229\u7387\u4ece6.5\uff05 \u964d\u4f4e\u52301\uff05\uff0c\u7136\u540e\u57282008\u5e74\u91d1\u878d\u5371\u673a\u4e2d\uff0c\u5904\u7406\u65b9\u5f0f\u662f\u5c06\u5229\u7387\u4ece5.25\uff05\u964d\u4f4e\u52300.25\uff05\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\n\t\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u5229\u7387<\/p>\n<figure aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-9296\" id=\"attachment_9296\">\n\t<img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"\" src=\"https:\/\/www.wwsww.cn\/uploads\/200319\/1-2003191PA4I3.jpg\" style=\"width: 513px;height: 301px\" \/><br \/><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-9296\">source:Bloomberg,BitMEX<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>\n\t\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u653f\u7b56\u662f\u57fa\u4e8e\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6a21\u578b\u5047\u5b9a\u8d27\u5e01\u653f\u7b56\u4e0d\u4f1a\u5f71\u54cd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7ed3\u6784\uff0c\u800c\u53ea\u662f\u7f13\u89e3\u4e86\u8d27\u5e01\u5728\u91d1\u878d\u7cfb\u7edf\u4e2d\u7684\u6d41\u52a8\u3002\u4f46\u662f\u6211\u4eec\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u653f\u7b56\u5df2\u53d8\u5f97\u975e\u5e38\u6781\u7aef\uff0c\u8ba9\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0d\u518d\u53ea\u662f\u5982\u6b64\u3002\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u653f\u7b56\u5df2\u6210\u4e3a\u6539\u53d8\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7ed3\u6784\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u52a8\u529b\u3002\u5bf9\u6076\u5316\u60c5\u51b5\u4f5c\u51fa\u7684\u53cd\u5e94\uff0c\u53ea\u662f\u66f4\u52a0\u786e\u4fdd\u5b83\u4f1a\u53d8\u5f97\u66f4\u7cdf\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5229\u7387\u653f\u7b56\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u52a9\u957f\u4e00\u7cfb\u5217\u91d1\u878d\u5371\u673a\uff0c\u6bcf\u6b21\u5371\u673a\u90fd\u901a\u8fc7\u964d\u4f4e\u5229\u7387\u6765\u300c\u89e3\u51b3\u300d\uff0c\u8fd9\u53c8\u4e3a\u4e0b\u4e00\u6b21\u5371\u673a\u64ad\u4e0b\u4e86\u79cd\u5b50\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\n\t\u4e0d\u7ba1\u4eba\u4eec\u5bf9\u8d27\u5e01\u653f\u7b56\u6709\u4f55\u770b\u6cd5\uff0c\u6beb\u65e0\u7591\u95ee\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u5f53\u524d\u7684\u4f53\u7cfb\u4e0d\u80fd\u518d\u627f\u53d7\u53c8\u4e00\u6b21\u7684\u5371\u673a\u3002\u73b0\u5728\u662f\u65f6\u5019\u6539\u53d8\u4e86\u3002<\/p>\n<h3>\n\t\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u5236\u53d8\u5316<\/h3>\n<p>\n\t\u4e16\u754c\u5404\u56fd\u653f\u5e9c\u5c06\u9762\u4e34\u5de8\u989d\u8d22\u653f\u8d64\u5b57\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e0d\u4ec5\u662f\u7531\u4e8e\u66f4\u9ad8\u7684\u652f\u51fa\u8981\u6c42\u6240\u81f4\uff0c\u4e5f\u662f\u523b\u610f\u523a\u6fc0\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7b56\u7565\u7684\u4e00\u90e8\u5206\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\n\t\u65b0\u4ea7\u751f\u7684\u5927\u578b\u8d64\u5b57\u5c06\u76f4\u63a5\u7531\u4e2d\u592e\u94f6\u884c\u8d2d\u4e70\u653f\u5e9c\u503a\u5238\u4ee5\u6ce8\u8d44\u8212\u7f13\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u5b83\u6709\u5f88\u591a\u540d\u76ee\uff1a<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\n\t\t\u4eba\u6c11\u91cf\u5316\u5bbd\u677e\u653f\u7b56<\/li>\n<li>\n\t\t\u4eba\u6c11\u91d1\u878d\u6551\u5e02\uff08The People&#039;s Bailout\uff09<\/li>\n<li>\n\t\t\u73b0\u4ee3\u8d27\u5e01\u7406\u8bba<\/li>\n<li>\n\t\t\u5168\u6c11\u57fa\u672c\u6536\u5165<\/li>\n<li>\n\t\t\u76f4\u5347\u673a\u6492\u94b1<\/li>\n<li>\n\t\t\u8d22\u653f\u8f6c\u79fb<\/li>\n<li>\n\t\t\u7eff\u8272\u65b0\u653f<\/li>\n<li>\n\t\t\u6551\u52a9\u8ba1\u5212\uff08Handout 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