{"id":4110,"date":"2025-04-27T06:55:16","date_gmt":"2025-04-26T22:55:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.dm-yq.com\/?p=4110"},"modified":"2025-04-27T06:55:16","modified_gmt":"2025-04-26T22:55:16","slug":"%e6%af%94%e7%89%b9%e5%b8%81%e8%af%9e%e7%94%9f%e8%bf%84%e4%bb%8a%e6%b6%a8%e8%b6%851800%e4%b8%87%e5%80%8d%e4%b8%93%e5%ae%b6%e8%af%b4%e8%bf%91%e6%9c%9f%e9%a2%91%e5%88%9b%e5%a4%a9%e4%bb%b7%e6%9c%892","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.dm-yq.com\/?p=4110","title":{"rendered":"\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\u8bde\u751f\u8fc4\u4eca\u6da8\u8d851800\u4e07\u500d\u4e13\u5bb6\u8bf4\u8fd1\u671f\u9891\u521b\u5929\u4ef7\u67092\u5927\u539f\u56e0"},"content":{"rendered":"

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\n\t\u4e2d\u56fd\u8bc1\u5238\u62a5\u62a5\u5bfc\uff0c\u867d\u7136\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\u8fd1\u671f\u6da8\u52bf\u5982\u8679\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u4e00\u4e9b\u5531\u8870\u8005\u8fd8\u662f\u7ee7\u7eed\u5176\u8bba\u70b9\uff0c2\u670813\u65e5\uff0c\u7740\u6709\u300a\u9ed1\u5929\u9e45\u4e8b\u4ef6\u300b\u7684\u5854\u52d2\u5e03\uff08Nassim Nicholas Taleb\uff09\u5728\u793e\u7fa4\u7f51\u8def\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u4ed6\u4e00\u76f4\u5728\u5356\u51fa\u81ea\u5df1\u6301\u6709\u7684\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\u3002\u7406\u7531\u5f88\u7b80\u5355\uff0c\u300c\u4e00\u79cd\u8d27\u5e01\u7684\u6ce2\u52a8\u6027\u6c38\u8fdc\u4e0d\u4f1a\u8d85\u8fc7\u4f60\u7528\u5b83\u4e70\u5356\u7684\u4e1c\u897f\uff0c\u4f60\u4e5f\u4e0d\u80fd\u7528\u865a\u62df\u8d27\u5e01\u4e3a\u5546\u54c1\u5b9a\u4ef7\u3002\u300d<\/p>\n

\n\t\u4ed6\u5f97\u51fa\u7ed3\u8bba\u79f0\uff1a\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\u7684\u6ce2\u52a8\u7387\u4e0d\u4f1a\u968f\u7740\u65f6\u95f4\u6216\u66f4\u9ad8\u7684\u4ef7\u683c\u800c\u4e0b\u964d\u3002\u4ece\u8fd9\u65b9\u9762\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u8d25\u5c40\uff08\u81f3\u5c11\u76ee\u524d\u5982\u6b64\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n

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\n\t2009\u5e741\u67083\u65e5\uff0c\u4e2d\u672c\u806a\u5728\u82ac\u5170\u8d6b\u5c14\u8f9b\u57fa\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u5c0f\u578b\u4f3a\u670d\u5668\u4e0a\u6316\u51fa\u7b2c\u4e00\u6279\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\u540e\uff0c\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\u6b63\u5f0f\u8bde\u751f\u30022010\u5e74\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\u7b2c\u4e00\u6b21\u4ea4\u6613\u7684\u4ef7\u683c\u7ea6\u4e3a0.0025\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u622a\u81f32021\u5e742\u670814\u65e5\uff0c\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\u8bde\u751f\u4ee5\u6765\u7684\u4ef7\u683c\u6da8\u5e45\u5df2\u8fbe\u5230\u521b\u7eaa\u5f55\u76841800\u4e07\u500d\uff01\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u8bf4\uff0c\u5f53\u521d\u6295\u8d441\u5143\u4eba\u6c11\u5e01\uff0c\u53ef\u8d2d\u4e7061.3\u4e2a\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\uff0c\u73b0\u5728\u7684\u4ef7\u503c\u7ea6\u4e3a288\u4e07\u7f8e\u5143\u3002<\/p>\n

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