{"id":4706,"date":"2025-09-23T06:55:16","date_gmt":"2025-09-22T22:55:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.dm-yq.com\/?p=4706"},"modified":"2025-09-23T06:55:16","modified_gmt":"2025-09-22T22:55:16","slug":"fed%e5%a6%82%e6%9c%9f%e5%8a%a0%e6%81%af%e4%b8%80%e7%a0%81%ef%bc%8cfed%e4%bc%9a%e8%ae%ae%e9%b2%8d%e5%a8%81%e5%b0%94%e8%ae%b2%e8%af%9d%e4%b8%89%e5%a4%a7%e9%87%8d%e7%82%b9%e6%95%b4%e7%90%86","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.dm-yq.com\/?p=4706","title":{"rendered":"Fed\u5982\u671f\u52a0\u606f\u4e00\u7801\uff0cFed\u4f1a\u8bae\u9c8d\u5a01\u5c14\u8bb2\u8bdd\u4e09\u5927\u91cd\u70b9\u6574\u7406"},"content":{"rendered":"

\n\t\u7f8e\u56fd\u8054\u90a6\u51c6\u5907\u7406\u4e8b\u4f1a\uff08Fed\uff09\u4e0e\u8054\u90a6\u516c\u5f00\u5e02\u573a\u64cd\u4f5c\u59d4\u5458\u4f1a\uff08FOMC\uff091\u65e5\u516c\u5e03\u6700\u65b0\u8bae\u606f\u7ed3\u679c\uff0c\u5982\u5916\u754c\u9884\u671f\u52a0\u606f1\u7801\uff0825\u4e2a\u57fa\u70b9\uff09\uff0c\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u653e\u7f13\u52a0\u606f\u6b65\u8c03\uff0c\u53d7\u5230\u6d88\u606f\u6fc0\u52b1\uff0c\u7f8e\u80a1\u4e3b\u8981\u6307\u6570\u7531\u9ed1\u7ffb\u7ea2\uff0c\u90a3\u6307\u52b2\u626c2%\uff0c\u8d39\u534a\u5927\u6da8\u903e5%\u3002\u6b64\u5916\uff0cFed\u4e3b\u5e2d\u9c8d\u5a01\u5c14\u627f\u8ba4\u901a\u81a8\u5f00\u59cb\u8d8b\u7f13\u7684\u8a00\u8bba\uff0c\u4ee4\u6295\u8d44\u4eba\u611f\u5230\u632f\u594b\u3002<\/p>\n

\n\t\"\"<\/p>\n

\n\t\u8054\u51c6\u4f1a\u52a0\u606f\u4e00\u7801\uff0c\u7f8e\u80a1\u6536\u9ad8\uff0c\u8d39\u534a\u5927\u6da85%<\/h2>\n

\n\t\u7f8e\u56fd\u8054\u51c6\u4f1a1\u65e5\u5982\u5916\u754c\u9884\u671f\u52a0\u606f1\u7801\uff0825\u4e2a\u57fa\u70b9\uff09\uff0c\u5c06\u8054\u90a6\u57fa\u91d1\u5229\u7387\u4e0a\u8c03\u52304.5%\u81f34.75%\u7684\u76ee\u6807\u533a\u95f4\uff0c\u4e3b\u5e2d\u9c8d\u5a01\u5c14\uff08Jerome Powell\uff09\u5728\u4f1a\u540e\u8bb0\u8005\u4f1a\u4e0a\u518d\u5ea6\u91cd\u7533\u8054\u51c6\u4f1a\u7684\u6297\u901a\u81a8\u51b3\u5fc3\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u5bf9\u4e8e\u6297\u901a\u81a8\u7684\u8fdb\u5c55\u7ed9\u51fa\u4e86\u4e50\u89c2\u8bc4\u8bba\u3002<\/p>\n

\n\t\u800c\u540e\uff0c\u7f8e\u80a1\u5468\u4e09\uff081\u65e5\uff09\u6536\u9ad8\uff0c\u90a3\u6307\u548c\u8d39\u534a\u6da8\u5e45\u5c24\u5176\u5927\u3002<\/p>\n

\n\t\u9053\u743c\u5de5\u4e1a\u6307\u6570\u4e0a\u6da86.92\u70b9\uff0c\u6da8\u5e450.02%\uff0c\u62a534092.96\u70b9\uff0c\u6807\u666e500\u6307\u6570\u626c\u534742.61\u70b9\uff0c\u6da8\u5e451.1%\uff0c\u6536\u57284119.21\u70b9\uff0c\u90a3\u65af\u8fbe\u514b\u7efc\u5408\u6307\u6570\u52b2\u626c231.77\u70b9\uff0c\u6da8\u5e452.0%\uff0c\u6536\u81f311816.32\u70b9\uff0c\u8d39\u57ce\u534a\u5bfc\u4f53\u6307\u6570\u5927\u6da8151.55\u70b9\uff0c\u6da8\u5e455%\uff0c\u6500\u62b53073.47\u70b9\u3002<\/p>\n

\n\t\u7f8e\u80a1\u4e3b\u8981\u6307\u6570\u5728Fed\u51b3\u8bae\u52a0\u606f\u540e\u4e00\u5ea6\u8d70\u8dcc\uff0cFed\u58f0\u660e\u4e5f\u8bf4\uff0c\u300c\u6301\u7eed\u63d0\u9ad8\u300d\u5229\u7387\u5c06\u5c5e\u9002\u5f53\u3002<\/p>\n

\n\tFed \u4f1a\u8bae\u9c8d\u5a01\u5c14\u8bb2\u8bdd\u4e09\u5927\u91cd\u70b9<\/h2>\n

\n\t\u4e3b\u5e2d\u9c8d\u5a01\u5c14\uff08Jerome Powell\uff09\u5728\u4f1a\u540e\u8bb0\u8005\u4f1a\u4e0a\u518d\u5ea6\u91cd\u7533\u8054\u51c6\u4f1a\u7684\u6297\u901a\u81a8\u51b3\u5fc3\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u5bf9\u4e8e\u6297\u901a\u81a8\u7684\u8fdb\u5c55\u7ed9\u51fa\u4e86\u4e50\u89c2\u8bc4\u8bba\u3002\u4ee5\u4e0b\u6574\u7406\u9c8d\u5a01\u5c14\u8c08\u8bdd\u7684\u4e09\u5927\u91cd\u70b9\uff1a<\/p>\n

\n\t1. \u901a\u81a8\u9010\u6e10\u548c\u7f13\uff0c\u4f46\u4ecd\u5904\u4e8e\u9ad8\u4f4d<\/p>\n

\n\t\u6839\u636e\u8054\u90a6\u516c\u5f00\u5e02\u573a\u59d4\u5458\u4f1a\uff08FOMC\uff09\u91ca\u51fa\u7684\u58f0\u660e\uff0c\u8fd1\u671f\u7684\u6570\u636e\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u652f\u51fa\u548c\u751f\u4ea7\u7684\u6210\u957f\u6b65\u8c03\u9010\u6e10\u653e\u7f13\uff0c\u901a\u81a8\u5df2\u6709\u6240\u7f13\u548c\uff0c\u9c8d\u5a01\u5c14\u4e5f\u5728\u8bb0\u8005\u4f1a\u4e0a\u677e\u53e3\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u5df2\u8fc8\u5165\u901a\u81a8\u51cf\u7f13\u7684\u8fc7\u7a0b\uff08Disinflationary process\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n

\n\t\u4e0d\u8fc7FOMC\u4ecd\u5728\u58f0\u660e\u4e2d\u5f3a\u8c03\uff0c\u901a\u81a8\u867d\u6709\u6240\u51cf\u7f13\uff0c\u4e0d\u8fc7\u4ecd\u5904\u4e8e\u9ad8\u4f4d\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u4fc4\u4e4c\u6218\u4e89\u52a0\u5267\u5168\u7403\u7684\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\uff0c\u4f7f\u7ecf\u6d4e\u627f\u538b\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64FOMC\u5c06\u6301\u7eed\u5173\u6ce8\u901a\u81a8\u7684\u98ce\u9669\uff0c\u9c8d\u5a01\u5c14\u5f3a\u8c03\uff0c\u901a\u81a8\u51cf\u7f13\u7684\u8fc7\u7a0b\u76ee\u524d\u4ecd\u5728\u521d\u6b65\u9636\u6bb5\uff0c\u8054\u51c6\u4f1a\u4ecd\u8bb8\u591a\u5de5\u4f5c\u8981\u505a\uff0c\u73b0\u5728\u82e5\u5ba3\u5e03\u6218\u80dc\u901a\u81a8\u4ecd\u8a00\u4e4b\u8fc7\u65e9\u3002<\/p>\n

\n\t\u9c8d\u5a01\u5c14\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u867d\u7136\u5546\u54c1\u4ef7\u683c\u548c\u79df\u5c4b\u4ef7\u683c\u4e0b\u964d\u662f\u597d\u7684\u73b0\u8c61\uff0c\u4f46\u76ee\u524d\u5c1a\u672a\u770b\u5230\u6838\u5fc3\u901a\u81a8\u6570\u636e\u51fa\u73b0\u7f13\u548c\u8ff9\u8c61\uff0c\u4ed6\u518d\u5ea6\u91cd\u7533\uff0c\u8054\u51c6\u4f1a\u5173\u6ce8\u7684\u91cd\u70b9\u5e76\u975e\u77ed\u671f\u6ce2\u52a8\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u6574\u4f53\u91d1\u878d\u6761\u4ef6\u7684\u957f\u8fdc\u53d8\u5316\uff0c\u7531\u6b64\u6765\u770b\uff0c\u8054\u51c6\u4f1a\u5c1a\u672a\u91c7\u53d6\u8db3\u591f\u7684\u9650\u5236\u6027\u653f\u7b56\u7acb\u573a\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u9884\u8ba1\u672a\u6765\u4ecd\u4f1a\u6301\u7eed\u52a0\u606f\u3002<\/p>\n

\n\t2. \u52a0\u606f\u5faa\u73af\u5c1a\u672a\u544a\u7ec8\uff0c\u4f46fed \u52a0\u606f\u5e45\u5ea6\u4e0d\u4f1a\u66f4\u5927<\/p>\n

\n\tFOMC\u5728\u58f0\u660e\u4e2d\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u4e3a\u4e86\u5b9e\u8df5\u8db3\u591f\u5177\u6709\u9650\u5236\u6027\u7684\u8d27\u5e01\u653f\u7b56\uff0c\u597d\u8ba9\u901a\u81a8\u56de\u843d\u81f32%\u7684\u76ee\u6807\uff0c\u5b98\u5458\u4eec\u8ba4\u4e3a\u6301\u7eed\u4e0a\u8c03\u8054\u90a6\u57fa\u91d1\u5229\u7387\u662f\u5408\u9002\u7684\u51b3\u7b56\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u672c\u6b21\u7684\u52a0\u606f\u51b3\u5b9a\u83b7\u5f97\u5168\u4f53FOMC\u6295\u7968\u59d4\u5458\u7684\u540c\u610f\u3002<\/p>\n

\n\t\u81f3\u4e8e\u672a\u6765\u7684\u653f\u7b56\u8d70\u5411\uff0c\u9c8d\u5a01\u5c14\u5728\u8bb0\u8005\u4f1a\u4e0a\u8868\u793a\uff0cFOMC\u9884\u8ba1\u4f1a\u518d\u52a0\u606f\u6570\u6b21\uff08a couple of more rate hikes\uff09\uff0c\u4e0d\u8fc7\u5728\u786e\u8ba4\u901a\u81a8\u4e0b\u964d\u81f32%\u4ee5\u524d\u4e0d\u4f1a\u964d\u606f\uff0c\u4ed6\u4e5f\u5f3a\u8c03\uff0c\u8054\u51c6\u4f1a\u76ee\u524d\u6240\u770b\u5230\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u524d\u666f\u5305\u62ec\u6210\u957f\u653e\u7f13\u3001\u5931\u4e1a\u7387\u6e29\u548c\u4e0a\u5347\u3001\u901a\u81a8\u7f13\u6162\u4e0b\u6ed1\uff0c\u82e5\u7f8e\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8868\u73b0\u5982\u4e0a\u8ff0\u9884\u671f\uff0c\u4ed6\u8ba4\u4e3a\u4eca\u5e74\u4e0d\u9002\u5408\u964d\u606f\u3002<\/p>\n

\n\t\u81f3\u4e8eFOMC\u7684\u5229\u7387\u9884\u6d4b\u70b9\u72b6\u56fe\u5219\u9884\u8ba1\u4f1a\u57283\u6708\u7684\u4f1a\u8bae\u4e0a\u8fdb\u884c\u66f4\u65b0\uff0c\u5f53\u8bb0\u8005\u95ee\u53ca\u672c\u6b21\u52a0\u606f\u5faa\u73af\u7684\u5229\u7387\u7ec8\u70b9\u65f6\uff0c\u9c8d\u5a01\u5c14\u56de\u7b54\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u8054\u51c6\u4f1a\u6709\u673a\u4f1a\u5c06\u8054\u90a6\u57fa\u91d1\u5229\u7387\u7ef4\u6301\u57285%\u4ee5\u4e0b\u3002<\/p>\n

\n\t3.\u8f6f\u7740\u9646\u4ecd\u6709\u5e0c\u671b<\/p>\n

\n\t\u9c8d\u5a01\u5c14\u4f9d\u65e7\u76f8\u4fe1\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u6709\u673a\u4f1a\u5728\u907f\u514d\u9677\u5165\u7ecf\u6d4e\u91cd\u5ea6\u8870\u9000\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u8ba9\u901a\u81a8\u56de\u843d\u81f3\u8054\u51c6\u4f1a\u76842%\u76ee\u6807\uff0c\u4e14\u80fd\u5c06\u5931\u4e1a\u7387\u7ef4\u6301\u5728\u76ee\u524d\u7684\u6c34\u51c6\u3002\u4ed6\u9884\u671f\uff0c\u5c3d\u7ba1\u7f8e\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u901f\u653e\u7f13\uff0c\u4f46\u4eca\u5e74\u4ecd\u4f9d\u65e7\u4f1a\u5b9e\u73b0\u6b63\u6210\u957f\u3002<\/p>\n

\n\t\u9c8d\u5a01\u5c14\u8c08\u8bdd\u540e\u5e02\u573a\u53cd\u5e94\u5982\u4f55\uff1f<\/h2>\n

\n\t\u9c8d\u5a01\u5c14\u5f00\u59cb\u53d1\u8a00\u4e0d\u4e45\u540e\uff0c\u7f8e\u80a1\u4ece\u76d8\u4e2d\u4f4e\u70b9\u56de\u5f39\uff0c\u7ec8\u573a\u6807\u666e\u6536\u6da81%\uff0c\u90a3\u6307\u6536\u6da82%\u3002<\/p>\n

\n\tEdward Jones\u6295\u8d44\u7b56\u7565\u5e08Angelo Kourkafas\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u6295\u8d44\u4eba\u53d7\u5230\u9c8d\u5a01\u5c14\u8a00\u8bba\u7684\u6fc0\u52b1\uff0c\u300c\u4ed6\u6709\u673a\u4f1a\u91ca\u51fa\u9e70\u6d3e\u8baf\u606f\uff0c\u5374\u6ca1\u8fd9\u4e48\u505a\uff0c\u4ed6\u672c\u6765\u53ef\u4ee5\u8bf4\u5148\u524d\u5e02\u573a\u8fc7\u5ea6\u5174\u594b\uff0c\u4f46\u4ed6\u6ca1\u6709\u628a\u63e1\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u673a\u4f1a\uff0c\u53cd\u800c\u8bf4\u5927\u91cf\u7d27\u7f29\u7684\u6548\u679c\u5df2\u7ecf\u53d1\u751f\u300d\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u8fd9\u662f\u9c8d\u5a01\u5c14\u9996\u6b21\u8bf4\u4ed6\u53ef\u80fd\u627f\u8ba4\u901a\u81a8\u7f13\u548c\u5f00\u59cb\u53d1\u751f\uff0c\u6295\u8d44\u4eba\u5c06\u4ed6\u7684\u8a00\u8bba\u89c6\u4f5cFed\u672a\u6765\u300c\u9884\u5b9a\u300d\u518d\u5347\u4e24\u7801\u3002<\/p>\n

\n\t\u5348\u76d8\u8fc7\u540e\u7684\u7f8e\u80a1\u6da8\u52bf\uff0c\u5c06\u6807\u666e500\u6307\u6570\u63a8\u5347\u5230\u53bb\u5e748\u670825\u65e5\u4ee5\u6765\u7684\u6700\u9ad8\u70b9\uff0c\u800c\u90a3\u6307\u5219\u7ad9\u4e0a\u53bb\u5e749\u6708\u4ee5\u6765\u6700\u9ad8\u3002<\/p>\n

\n\t\u5728\u6807\u666e11\u5927\u4e3b\u8981\u7c7b\u80a1\u4e2d\uff0c\u4ec5\u80fd\u6e90\u7c7b\u80a1\u6536\u4f4e\uff0c\u4e0b\u8dcc\u4e861.9%\uff0c\u800c\u5bf9\u5229\u7387\u654f\u611f\u7684\u79d1\u6280\u7c7b\u80a1\u6da8\u5e45\u6700\u5927\uff0c\u4e0a\u6da8\u4e862.3%\u3002<\/p>\n

\n\t\u800c\u7f8e\u503a\u6b96\u5229\u7387\u5219\u5e94\u58f0\u8dcc\u81f3\u5f53\u65e5\u4f4e\u70b9\uff0c2 \u5e74\u671f\u7f8e\u503a\u6b96\u5229\u7387\u5c3e\u76d8\u4e0b\u6ed1\u81f34.10%\uff0c10\u5e74\u671f\u7f8e\u503a\u6b96\u5229\u7387\u5219\u964d\u81f33.41%\u3002\u53e6\uff0c\u8ffd\u8e2a\u7f8e\u5143\u5151\u516d\u79cd\u4e3b\u8981\u8d27\u5e01\u8d70\u52bf\u7684ICE\u7f8e\u5143\u6307\u6570\u5219\u4e0b\u8dcc\u8fd11%\u81f3101.14\uff0c\u76d8\u4e2d\u6700\u4f4e\u4e00\u5ea6\u89e6\u53ca101.03\u3002<\/p>\n

\n\t\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\u5728Fed \u6d88\u606f\u4e00\u516c\u5e03\u540e\u867d\u4e00\u5ea6\u4e0b\u8dcc\u81f322,755 \u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u4f46\u968f\u540e\u53d1\u8d77\u4e00\u6ce2\u5f3a\u52b2\u53cd\u5f39\uff0c\u622a\u7a3f\u524d\u7a81\u78342.4 \u4e07\u6765\u523024,197 \u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u518d\u521b\u8fd1\u534a\u5e74\u6765\u65b0\u9ad8\u3002<\/p>\n

\n\t\u53ef\u4ee5\u677e\u53e3\u6c14\u4e86\u5417\uff1f\u4ecd\u987b\u614e\u9632\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8870\u9000<\/h2>\n

\n\t\u5728\u4f1a\u540e\u58f0\u660e\u8fc7\u540e\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u5982\u4eca\u62bc\u6ce8Fed\u4f1a\u628a\u57286\u6708\u5c06\u5229\u7387\u5347\u5230\u6700\u9ad8\u76844.892%\uff0c\u6bd4\u58f0\u660e\u524d\u76844.92%\u4f4e\u4e86\u4e00\u4e9b\u3002\u800c\u5229\u7387\u671f\u8d27\u4ecd\u53cd\u6620Fed\u4f1a\u5728\u4eca\u5e74\u5e95\u524d\u964d\u606f\uff0c\u5c06\u5229\u7387\u8c03\u52304.403%\u3002<\/p>\n

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