{"id":6169,"date":"2025-12-31T17:43:16","date_gmt":"2025-12-31T09:43:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.dm-yq.com\/?p=6169"},"modified":"2025-12-31T17:43:16","modified_gmt":"2025-12-31T09:43:16","slug":"%e6%af%94%e7%89%b9%e5%b8%81%e8%bf%99%e6%b3%a2%e7%89%9b%e5%b8%82%e8%83%bd%e5%86%b2%e5%a4%9a%e9%ab%98%ef%bc%9f%e9%93%be%e4%b8%8a%e6%95%b0%e6%8d%ae%e5%88%86%e6%9e%90%ef%bc%9a%e6%bd%9c%e5%9c%a8%e9%ab%98","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.dm-yq.com\/?p=6169","title":{"rendered":"\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\u8fd9\u6ce2\u725b\u5e02\u80fd\u51b2\u591a\u9ad8\uff1f\u94fe\u4e0a\u6570\u636e\u5206\u6790\uff1a\u6f5c\u5728\u9ad8\u70b9\u4e0a\u770b 27 \u4e07\u7f8e\u5143"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u968f\u8457\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\u5448\u73b0\u524d\u6240\u672a\u6709\u7684\u770b\u6da8\u52bf\u5934\uff0c\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e0d\u53ef\u907f\u514d\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u6d6e\u73b0\uff1a\u5728\u672c\u5e02\u573a\u5468\u671f\u4e2d\uff0c\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\u4ef7\u683c\uff08BTC\uff09 \u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\u80fd\u6da8\u5230\u591a\u9ad8\uff1f\u672c\u6587\u5c06\u63a2\u8ba8\u4e00\u7cfb\u5217\u94fe\u4e0a\u4f30\u503c\u6a21\u578b\u548c\u5468\u671f\u65f6\u673a\u5de5\u5177\uff0c\u4ee5\u786e\u5b9a\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\u53ef\u80fd\u7684\u5cf0\u503c\u4ef7\u683c\u76ee\u6807\u3002
\n
<\/p>\n

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\u4ef7\u683c\u9884\u6d4b\u5de5\u5177<\/p>\n

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\"\u56fe 1\uff1a\u5e94\u7528\u4ef7\u683c\u9884\u6d4b\u5de5\u5177\u8ba1\u7b97\u6f5c\u5728\u5468\u671f\u9876\u90e8<\/p>\n

\u5173\u952e\u6a21\u578b\u5305\u62ec\u4ee5\u4e0b\u51e0\u79cd\uff1a<\/p>\n

\u9876\u90e8\u5e02\u503c (Top Cap)\uff1a\u900f\u8fc7\u5c06\u5386\u53f2\u5e73\u5747\u5e02\u503c\u4e58\u4ee5 35 \u6765\u9884\u6d4b\u5cf0\u503c\u4f30\u503c\u3002\u8be5\u6a21\u578b\u7cbe\u51c6\u9884\u6d4b\u4e86 2017 \u5e74\u7684\u9876\u90e8\uff0c\u4f46\u672a\u80fd\u51c6\u786e\u9884\u6d4b 2020-2021 \u5468\u671f\uff0c\u9884\u8ba1\u8d85\u8fc7 20 \u4e07\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u800c\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\u5b9e\u9645\u5cf0\u503c\u7ea6\u4e3a 6.9 \u4e07\u7f8e\u5143\u3002\u76ee\u524d\u6a21\u578b\u9884\u6d4b\u8d85\u8fc7 50 \u4e07\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u611f\u89c9\u8d8a\u6765\u8d8a\u4e0d\u5207\u5b9e\u9645\u3002<\/p>\n

Delta \u9876\u70b9 (Delta Top)\uff1a\u900f\u8fc7\u4ece\u5b9e\u73b0\u5e02\u503c ( \u57fa\u4e8e\u6240\u6709\u6d41\u901a BTC \u7684\u6210\u672c\u57fa\u7840) \u4e2d\u51cf\u53bb\u5e73\u5747\u5e02\u503c\uff0c\u4ea7\u751f\u66f4\u63a5\u5730\u6c14\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u3002\u8be5\u6a21\u578b\u5728\u4e0a\u4e00\u5468\u671f\u9884\u6d4b\u4e86 8 \u4e07\u81f3 10 \u4e07\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u9876\u90e8\u3002<\/p>\n

\u7ec8\u7aef\u4ef7\u683c (Terminal Price)\uff1a\u57fa\u4e8e\u4f9b\u5e94\u8c03\u6574\u540e\u7684\u5e01\u9f84\u9500\u6bc1 (Coin Days Destroyed) \u8ba1\u7b97\uff0c\u662f\u5386\u53f2\u4e0a\u4e0e\u6bcf\u6b21\u5cf0\u503c\u6700\u63a5\u8fd1\u7684\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u5305\u62ec 2021 \u5e74\u7684 6.4 \u4e07\u7f8e\u5143\u9876\u90e8\u3002\u76ee\u524d\u9884\u6d4b\u7ea6\u4e3a 22.1 \u4e07\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u5347\u81f3 25 \u4e07\u7f8e\u5143\u6216\u66f4\u9ad8\uff0c\u88ab\u8ba4\u4e3a\u662f\u6700\u53ef\u4fe1\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u5b8f\u89c2\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\u9876\u90e8\u7684\u6a21\u578b\u3002\u66f4\u591a\u5173\u4e8e\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6307\u6807\u53ca\u5176\u8ba1\u7b97\u903b\u8f91\u7684\u7ec6\u8282\uff0c\u53ef\u5728\u7f51\u7ad9\u56fe\u8868\u4e0b\u65b9\u627e\u5230\u3002<\/p>\n

\u53e6\u4e00\u4e2a\u5f3a\u6709\u529b\u7684\u6307\u6807\u662f MVRV \u6bd4\u7387\uff0c\u5b83\u6bd4\u8f83\u5e02\u573a\u5e02\u503c\u4e0e\u5b9e\u73b0\u5e02\u503c\uff0c\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u5fc3\u7406\u7684\u7a97\u53e3\u3002\u8be5\u6bd4\u7387\u5728\u4e3b\u8981\u5468\u671f\u901a\u5e38\u5728 4 \u5de6\u53f3\u8fbe\u5230\u9876\u5cf0\uff0c\u76ee\u524d\u4e3a 2.34\uff0c\u663e\u793a\u4ecd\u6709\u663e\u8457\u4e0a\u6da8\u7a7a\u95f4\u3002\u5386\u53f2\u4e0a\uff0c\u5f53 MVRV \u63a5\u8fd1 3.5 \u81f3 4 \u65f6\uff0c\u957f\u671f\u6301\u6709\u8005\u5f00\u59cb\u5b9e\u73b0\u53ef\u89c2\u6536\u76ca\uff0c\u901a\u5e38\u6807\u5fd7\u8457\u5468\u671f\u6210\u719f\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u7531\u4e8e\u56de\u62a5\u9012\u51cf\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u672c\u5468\u671f\u53ef\u80fd\u65e0\u6cd5\u8fbe\u5230\u5b8c\u6574\u7684 4 \u3002\u4f7f\u7528\u66f4\u4fdd\u5b88\u7684 3.5 \u4f30\u8ba1\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u5f00\u59cb\u9884\u6d4b\u66f4\u73b0\u5b9e\u7684\u9ad8\u5cf0\u3002<\/p>\n

\"\"\u56fe 2\uff1aMVRV \u6bd4\u7387\u89c6\u56fe\u9884\u6d4b\u5468\u671f\u4ecd\u6709\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u6210\u957f\u7a7a\u95f4\uff0c\u8fbe\u5230\u5386\u53f2 4+ \u751a\u81f3\u66f4\u4fdd\u5b88\u7684 3.5 \u76ee\u6807\u503c
\n\u8ba1\u7b97\u76ee\u6807\u4ef7\u683c<\/p>\n

\u65f6\u673a\u4e0e\u4f30\u503c\u540c\u6837\u91cd\u8981\u3002\u900f\u8fc7\u5206\u6790\u300c\u81ea\u5468\u671f\u4f4e\u70b9\u4ee5\u6765\u7684 BTC \u6210\u957f\u300d\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u53d1\u73b0\u524d\u51e0\u8f6e\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\u5468\u671f\u5728\u8ddd\u79bb\u4f4e\u70b9\u7ea6 1060 \u5929\u65f6\u8fbe\u5230\u9876\u5cf0\u3002\u76ee\u524d\u6211\u4eec\u5904\u4e8e\u672c\u5468\u671f\u7ea6 930 \u5929\u3002\u5982\u679c\u8fd9\u4e00\u6a21\u5f0f\u6301\u7eed\uff0c\u9ad8\u5cf0\u53ef\u80fd\u5728\u7ea6 130 \u5929\u540e\u5230\u6765\u3002\u5386\u53f2\u4e0a\uff0cFOMO( \u6050\u60e7\u9519\u8fc7) \u9a71\u52a8\u7684\u4ef7\u683c\u4e0a\u6da8\u901a\u5e38\u53d1\u751f\u5728\u5468\u671f\u672b\u671f\uff0c\u5bfc\u81f4\u5b9e\u73b0\u4ef7\u683c ( \u6295\u8d44\u8005\u5e73\u5747\u6210\u672c\u57fa\u7840\u7684\u4ee3\u7406\u6307\u6807) \u8fc5\u901f\u4e0a\u5347\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c2017 \u5e74\u6700\u540e 130 \u5929\uff0c\u5b9e\u73b0\u4ef7\u683c\u589e\u957f\u4e86 260%;2021 \u5e74\u589e\u957f\u4e86 130% \u3002\u5047\u8bbe\u7531\u4e8e\u56de\u62a5\u9012\u51cf\uff0c\u6210\u957f\u7387\u518d\u51cf\u534a\uff0c\u4ece\u76ee\u524d 4.7 \u4e07\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u5b9e\u73b0\u4ef7\u683c\u6210\u957f 65%\uff0c\u5230 10 \u6708 18 \u65e5\u53ef\u80fd\u8fbe\u5230\u7ea6 7.8 \u4e07\u7f8e\u5143\u3002<\/p>\n

\"\"\u56fe 3\uff1a\u57fa\u4e8e\u524d\u51e0\u5468\u671f\u7684\u5cf0\u503c\u901f\u5ea6\uff0c\u672c\u5468\u671f\u8fdc\u672a\u7ed3\u675f<\/p>\n

\u7ed3\u5408\u9884\u8ba1\u7684 7.8 \u4e07\u7f8e\u5143\u5b9e\u73b0\u4ef7\u683c\u548c\u4fdd\u5b88\u7684 3.5 MVRV \u76ee\u6807\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5f97\u51fa\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\u6f5c\u5728\u4ef7\u683c\u9ad8\u5cf0\u4e3a 27.3 \u4e07\u7f8e\u5143\u3002\u867d\u7136\u8fd9\u770b\u4f3c\u96c4\u5fc3\u52c3\u52c3\uff0c\u4f46\u5386\u53f2\u4e0a\u7684\u629b\u7269\u7ebf\u5f0f\u66b4\u6da8\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u8d70\u52bf\u53ef\u80fd\u5728\u51e0\u5468\u800c\u975e\u51e0\u4e2a\u6708\u5185\u53d1\u751f\u3002\u5c3d\u7ba1\u9884\u8ba1\u9ad8\u5cf0\u66f4\u53ef\u80fd\u5728 15 \u4e07\u81f3 20 \u4e07\u7f8e\u5143\u4e4b\u95f4\uff0c\u4f46\u6570\u5b66\u548c\u94fe\u4e0a\u8bc1\u636e\u8868\u660e\u66f4\u9ad8\u4f30\u503c\u81f3\u5c11\u662f\u53ef\u80fd\u7684\u3002\u503c\u5f97\u6ce8\u610f\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6a21\u578b\u4f1a\u52a8\u6001\u8c03\u6574\uff0c\u82e5\u5468\u671f\u672b\u671f\u5e02\u573a\u72c2\u70ed\u52a0\u5267\uff0c\u9884\u6d4b\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u8fc5\u901f\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u52a0\u901f\u3002<\/p>\n

\"\"\u56fe 4\uff1a\u7ed3\u5408\u9884\u8ba1\u5b9e\u73b0\u4ef7\u683c\u548c\u53ef\u80fd\u7684 MVRV \u76ee\u6807\u9884\u6d4b\u672c\u5468\u671f\u9876\u5cf0<\/p>\n

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