{"id":6175,"date":"2026-01-01T22:31:16","date_gmt":"2026-01-01T14:31:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.onchainhtx.com\/?p=6175"},"modified":"2026-01-01T22:31:16","modified_gmt":"2026-01-01T14:31:16","slug":"%e7%be%8e%e8%81%94%e5%82%a8%e7%bb%b4%e6%8c%81%e5%88%a9%e7%8e%87%e4%b8%8d%e5%8f%98%ef%bc%8c%e6%af%94%e7%89%b9%e5%b8%81%e7%9f%ad%e6%9a%82%e6%b3%a2%e5%8a%a8%e5%90%8e%e8%bf%85%e9%80%9f%e5%9b%9e%e7%a8%b3","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.onchainhtx.com\/?p=6175","title":{"rendered":"\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u7ef4\u6301\u5229\u7387\u4e0d\u53d8\uff0c\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\u77ed\u6682\u6ce2\u52a8\u540e\u8fc5\u901f\u56de\u7a33"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

\u7f8e\u56fd\u8054\u90a6\u516c\u5f00\u5e02\u573a\u59d4\u5458\u4f1a\uff08FOMC\uff09\u5ba3\u5e03\u7ef4\u6301\u8054\u90a6\u57fa\u91d1\u5229\u7387\u5728 4.25% \u81f3 4.50% \u533a\u95f4\u4e0d\u53d8\uff0c\u7b26\u5408\u5e02\u573a\u9884\u671f\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5c3d\u7ba1\u51b3\u8bae\u516c\u5e03\u540e\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\uff08BTC\uff09\u4ef7\u683c\u51fa\u73b0\u77ed\u6682\u4e0b\u632b\uff0c\u8dcc\u7a7f 104,000 \u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u4f46\u8fc5\u901f\u56de\u7a33\uff0c\u64b0\u6587\u65f6\u5df2\u91cd\u56de 105,000 \u7f8e\u5143\u6c34\u5e73\uff0c\u663e\u793a\u5176\u5bf9\u5b8f\u89c2\u7ecf\u6d4e\u653f\u7b56\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u97e7\u6027\u3002\u5206\u6790\u5e08\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u673a\u6784\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u7684\u6301\u7eed\u4e70\u5165\u4e0e\u5730\u7f18\u653f\u6cbb\u98ce\u9669\u7684\u6682\u65f6\u7f13\u548c\uff0c\u662f\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\u4ef7\u683c\u56de\u7a33\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u9a71\u52a8\u56e0\u7d20\u3002<\/p>\n

FOMC \u4f1a\u8bae\u540e\uff0c\u4e3b\u5e2d\u9c8d\u5a01\u5c14\uff08Jerome Powell\uff09\u5728\u8bb0\u8005\u4f1a\u4e0a\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u957f\u7a33\u5065\uff0c\u5c3d\u7ba1\u901a\u80c0\u538b\u529b\u4ecd\u5b58\uff0c\u4f46\u65e0\u9700\u6025\u4e8e\u964d\u606f\u3002\u5e02\u573a\u5bf9\u6b64\u53cd\u5e94\u5e73\u6de1\uff0c\u65e0\u663e\u8457\u5229\u7a7a\u6216\u5229\u591a\u4fe1\u53f7\u3002<\/p>\n

\u9c8d\u5a01\u5c14\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u76ee\u524d\u7684\u52b3\u52a8\u529b\u5e02\u573a\u72b6\u51b5\u4e0d\u8db3\u4ee5\u652f\u6301\u964d\u606f\uff0c\u53cd\u6620\u51fa\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u5728\u6301\u7eed\u8bc4\u4f30\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8d8b\u52bf\u65f6\u7684\u8c28\u614e\u7acb\u573a\u3002\u9c8d\u5a01\u5c14\u7684\u8bc4\u8bba\u6697\u793a\uff0c\u5c3d\u7ba1\u901a\u80c0\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u53ef\u80fd\u9700\u8981\u65f6\u95f4\u624d\u80fd\u5b8c\u5168\u663e\u73b0\uff0c\u4f46\u9884\u8ba1\u672a\u6765\u51e0\u4e2a\u6708\u901a\u80c0\u5c06\u663e\u8457\u4e0a\u5347\u3002<\/p>\n

\u81ea\u53bb\u5e74 12 \u6708\u4e0a\u6b21\u8c03\u6574\u4ee5\u6765\uff0c\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u4e00\u76f4\u5c06\u57fa\u51c6\u5229\u7387\u7ef4\u6301\u5728 4.25% \u81f3 4.5% \u7684\u533a\u95f4\uff0c\u5e76\u5728\u6301\u7eed\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u4e2d\u91c7\u53d6\u89c2\u671b\u6001\u5ea6\u3002\u6700\u8fd1\u7684\u6570\u636e\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u5c3d\u7ba1\u52b3\u52a8\u529b\u5e02\u573a\u4f9d\u7136\u5f3a\u52b2\uff0c\u5931\u4e1a\u7387\u8f83\u4f4e\uff0c\u4f46\u901a\u80c0\u7387\u5728 5 \u6708\u4e0a\u5347\u81f3 2.4%\uff0c\u9ad8\u4e8e 4 \u6708\u7684 2.3% \u3002\u9c8d\u5a01\u5c14\u5f3a\u8c03\u9700\u8981\u5bf9\u901a\u80c0\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u8fdb\u884c\u5168\u9762\u8bc4\u4f30\u7684\u89c2\u70b9\uff0c\u4e0e\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u4fc3\u8fdb\u5145\u5206\u5c31\u4e1a\u548c\u786e\u4fdd\u7269\u4ef7\u7a33\u5b9a\u7684\u53cc\u91cd\u4f7f\u547d\u76f8\u4e00\u81f4\u3002<\/p>\n

\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u8fd8\u9884\u6d4b\u4eca\u5e74\u7684\u901a\u80c0\u548c\u5931\u4e1a\u7387\u5c06\u4e0a\u5347\u3002\u9884\u8ba1\u5230 2025 \u5e74\uff0cPCE \u901a\u80c0\u7387\u4e2d\u4f4d\u6570\u5c06\u8fbe\u5230 3%\uff0c\u9ad8\u4e8e 3 \u6708\u4efd\u9884\u6d4b\u7684 2.7% \u3002\u5931\u4e1a\u7387\u9884\u6d4b\u4e5f\u663e\u793a\u4e0a\u5347\uff0c\u5927\u591a\u6570\u5b98\u5458\u9884\u8ba1\u4eca\u5e74\u7684\u5931\u4e1a\u7387\u5728 4.4% \u81f3 4.5% \u4e4b\u95f4\u3002\u5c3d\u7ba1\u6709\u8fd9\u4e9b\u9884\u6d4b\uff0c\u4f46\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u4ecd\u8ba1\u5212\u5728 2025 \u5e74\u518d\u964d\u606f\u4e24\u6b21\uff0c\u4e0e\u4e4b\u524d\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u4e00\u81f4\u3002\u4e0d\u8fc7\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u964d\u606f\u63aa\u65bd\u53d6\u51b3\u4e8e\u5373\u5c06\u516c\u5e03\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6570\u636e\u3002<\/p>\n

FOMC \u7ef4\u6301\u5229\u7387\u4e0d\u53d8\u51b3\u8bae\u672a\u5e26\u6765\u610f\u5916\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u5bf9\u6b64\u5df2\u5145\u5206\u5b9a\u4ef7<\/p>\n

\u6839\u636e CME \u96c6\u56e2\u7684 FedWatch \u5de5\u5177\uff0c\u9884\u8ba1\u4e0d\u4f1a\u53d8\u52a8\u7684\u6982\u7387\u4e3a 99.9%\uff0c\u53cd\u6620\u51fa\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u5bf9\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u653f\u7b56\u7684\u9884\u671f\u9ad8\u5ea6\u4e00\u81f4\u3002<\/p>\n

Lookonchain \u62a5\u544a\u663e\u793a\uff0c\u5728 6 \u6708 18 \u65e5 FOMC \u4f1a\u8bae\u524d\uff0c10 \u53ea\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01 ETF \u5f55\u5f97 1,957 BTC\uff08\u7ea6 2.0589 \u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\uff09\u7684\u51c0\u6d41\u5165\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u8d1d\u83b1\u5fb7\uff08BlackRock\uff09\u7684 IBIT \u57fa\u91d1\u72ec\u5360\u9ccc\u5934\uff0c\u5438\u7eb3 6,088 BTC\uff08\u7ea6 6.4069 \u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\uff09\uff0c\u603b\u6301\u4ed3\u8fbe 680,337 BTC\uff08\u7ea6 715.9 \u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n

\"\"\u6765\u6e90\uff1a X @lookonchain<\/p>\n

\u6280\u672f\u9762\u5206\u6790\u663e\u793a\uff0c\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\u5728 4 \u5c0f\u65f6\u56fe\u4e0a\u6210\u529f\u7a81\u7834 10.62 \u4e07\u7f8e\u5143\u963b\u529b\uff0cRSI \u5347\u81f3 58\uff0cMACD \u770b\u6da8\u4ea4\u53c9\u521d\u6b65\u5f62\u6210\uff0c\u663e\u793a\u77ed\u671f\u52a8\u80fd\u8f6c\u5f3a\u3002 200 \u65e5\u5747\u7ebf\uff08\u7ea6 105,300 \u7f8e\u5143\uff09\u7ee7\u7eed\u63d0\u4f9b\u652f\u6491\uff0c\u82e5\u4ef7\u683c\u7ad9\u7a33 10.68 \u4e07\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u6311\u6218 10.98 \u4e07\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u5e74\u5ea6\u9ad8\u70b9\u3002 CoinEdition \u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u5c3d\u7ba1\u4e2d\u4e1c\u5730\u7f18\u98ce\u9669\uff08\u5982\u4f0a\u6717 Nobitex \u4ea4\u6613\u6240\u88ab\u9a87\uff09\u5e26\u6765\u6ce2\u52a8\uff0c\u4f46\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\u5728 106,000 \u7f8e\u5143\u9644\u8fd1\u5c55\u73b0\u97e7\u6027\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5e02\u573a\u5206\u6790\u5e08 James Hunt \u8868\u793a\uff1a\u300cFOMC \u7ef4\u6301\u5229\u7387\u4e0d\u53d8\u7684\u51b3\u8bae\u672a\u5e26\u6765\u610f\u5916\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u5bf9\u6b64\u5df2\u5145\u5206\u5b9a\u4ef7\u3002\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\u7684\u77ed\u6682\u6ce2\u52a8\u66f4\u591a\u6e90\u4e8e\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\u7684\u60c5\u7eea\u53cd\u5e94\uff0c\u800c\u975e\u6839\u672c\u9762\u53d8\u5316\u3002\u673a\u6784\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u7684\u6301\u7eed\u4e70\u5165\uff0c\u7279\u522b\u662f ETF \u7684\u51c0\u6d41\u5165\uff0c\u663e\u793a\u5bf9\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\u957f\u671f\u524d\u666f\u7684\u4fe1\u5fc3\u3002\u300d\u4ed6\u8865\u5145\u9053\uff0c\u7a33\u5b9a\u5e01\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u589e\u957f\uff08\u89c4\u6a21\u8fbe 2,517 \u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u589e\u957f 22%\uff09\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u652f\u6491\u4e86\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\u9700\u6c42\u3002<\/p>\n

\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u90e8\u5206\u4e13\u5bb6\u8b66\u544a\uff0c\u5730\u7f18\u653f\u6cbb\u98ce\u9669\u4ecd\u672a\u5b8c\u5168\u6d88\u9000\u3002\u82e5\u4e2d\u4e1c\u51b2\u7a81\u5347\u7ea7\uff0c\u6216\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u672a\u6765\u653f\u7b56\u8bed\u6c14\u8f6c\u5411\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u5bf9\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\u6784\u6210\u4e0b\u884c\u538b\u529b\u3002<\/p>\n

\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u7ef4\u6301\u5229\u7387\u4e0d\u53d8\u7684\u51b3\u8bae\u672a\u5bf9\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\u4ef7\u683c\u9020\u6210\u957f\u671f\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u8fc5\u901f\u56de\u7a33\uff0c\u663e\u793a\u5176\u5bf9\u5b8f\u89c2\u653f\u7b56\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u9002\u5e94\u80fd\u529b\u3002\u673a\u6784\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u7684\u6301\u7eed\u4e70\u5165\u4e0e\u6280\u672f\u9762\u7684\u652f\u6491\uff0c\u4e3a\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u575a\u5b9e\u7684\u5e95\u90e8\u3002\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u5e94\u5bc6\u5207\u5173\u6ce8\u672a\u6765\u51e0\u65e5\u7684 ETF \u8d44\u91d1\u6d41\u5411\u4e0e\u5730\u7f18\u653f\u6cbb\u53d1\u5c55\uff0c\u7279\u522b\u662f\u4f0a\u6717\u4e0e\u4ee5\u8272\u5217\u51b2\u7a81\u7684\u8fdb\u5c55\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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