{"id":6626,"date":"2026-04-02T03:19:16","date_gmt":"2026-04-01T19:19:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.dm-yq.com\/?p=6626"},"modified":"2026-04-02T03:19:16","modified_gmt":"2026-04-01T19:19:16","slug":"%e3%80%90mica-research%e3%80%91%e5%85%a8%e7%90%83%e7%bb%8f%e8%b4%b8%e5%b0%86%e9%87%8d%e5%a1%91%ef%bc%8c%e6%af%94%e7%89%b9%e5%b8%81%e4%bc%9a%e6%98%af%e6%9c%80%e4%bd%b3%e4%bf%9d%e5%80%bc%e5%b7%a5","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.dm-yq.com\/?p=6626","title":{"rendered":"\u3010MICA RESEARCH\u3011\u5168\u7403\u7ecf\u8d38\u5c06\u91cd\u5851\uff0c\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\u4f1a\u662f\u6700\u4f73\u4fdd\u503c\u5de5\u5177"},"content":{"rendered":"

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\n
<\/p>\n

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\"\"Sources: MICA RESEARCH
\nA. 04 \u6708 08 \u65e5 \u5047\u65b0\u95fb\u6fc0\u52b1\u7f8e\u80a1\u6b62\u8dcc\u53cd\u5f39\uff0c\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\u4e00\u5ea6\u91cd\u8fd4 80,000 \u7f8e\u5143<\/p>\n

\u6628\u5929\u7f8e\u80a1\u4ea4\u6613\u65e5\u51fa\u73b0\u4e00\u5219\u5047\u65b0\u95fb\uff0c\u4e00\u53e3\u6c14\u62c9\u5347\u539f\u5148\u60b2\u89c2\u81f3\u6781\u7684\u80a1\u5e02\u4ea4\u6613\u6c14\u6c1b\uff0c\u4e5f\u5e26\u52a8\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\u4ef7\u683c\u56de\u5347\u81f3 80,000 \u7f8e\u5143\u4ee5\u4e0a\uff0c\u7ebd\u7ea6\u65f6\u95f4\u4e0a\u5348 10:10 \u5de6\u53f3\uff0c\u793e\u7fa4\u5a92\u4f53\u5f00\u59cb\u6d41\u4f20\u4e00\u5219\u65b0\u95fb\uff1a\u300cHASSETT\uff1a\u5ddd\u666e\u8003\u8651\u5bf9\u9664\u4e2d\u56fd\u5916\u6240\u6709\u56fd\u5bb6\u6682\u505c 90 \u5929\u5173\u7a0e\u300d\uff0c\u770b\u4f3c\u5f15\u8ff0\u56fd\u5bb6\u7ecf\u6d4e\u59d4\u5458\u4f1a\u4e3b\u4efb\u51ef\u6587\u00b7\u54c8\u585e\u7279\u7684\u8bdd\uff0c\u6fc0\u52b1\u5e02\u573a\u5feb\u901f\u53cd\u5f39\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u8fc5\u901f\u53cd\u5e94\uff0c\u6807\u666e 500 \u6307\u6570\u4ece\u4e0b\u8dcc 4.7% \u8f6c\u4e3a\u4e0a\u6da8 3.4%\uff0c\u7f8e\u80a1 10 \u5206\u949f\u5185\u5e02\u503c\u66b4\u589e 2.4 \u5146\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\u5e02\u503c\u4e5f\u8ddf\u8457\u62c9\u5347\u3002<\/p>\n

\u7136\u800c\u767d\u5bab\u4e8e\u8fc5\u901f\u5426\u8ba4\u8be5\u62a5\u5bfc\u540e\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u968f\u5373\u56de\u843d\uff0c\u6307\u6570\u5e02\u503c\u5728 23 \u5206\u949f\u5185\u84b8\u53d1 2.5 \u5146\u7f8e\u5143\u3002\u6807\u666e 500 \u5f53\u5929\u6700\u7ec8\u4ec5\u5c0f\u8dcc 0.2% \u3002\u8be5\u865a\u5047\u65b0\u95fb\u6700\u65e9\u7531\u4e00\u4e2a\u540d\u4e3a\u300cWalter Bloomberg\u300d\u7684\u533f\u540d X \u5e10\u53f7\u53d1\u5e03\uff0c\u8be5\u5e10\u53f7\u7ecf\u5e38\u5f20\u8d34\u7c7b\u4f3c\u6c47\u6574\u65b0\u95fb\u6807\u9898\uff0c\u5438\u5f15\u5927\u91cf\u6295\u8d44\u4eba\u5173\u6ce8\uff0c\u867d\u4e0e\u5f6d\u535a\u65b0\u95fb\u65e0\u5173\u3002\u8be5\u5e10\u53f7\u8868\u793a\u662f\u5728 X \u4e0a\u770b\u5230\u4e00\u5219\u6765\u81ea T3 Trading Group \u7684\u8d34\u6587\u540e\uff0c\u6839\u636e\u5e02\u573a\u5f3a\u70c8\u53cd\u5e94\u8ba4\u4e3a\u8baf\u606f\u53ef\u9760\u800c\u8f6c\u53d1\u3002<\/p>\n

\u8fd9\u663e\u793a\u5e02\u573a\u5bf9\u4e8e\u597d\u6d88\u606f\u7684\u6e34\u671b\u9884\u671f\u975e\u5e38\u5f3a\u70c8\uff0c\u5149\u662f\u4e00\u5219\u4e34\u65f6\u672a\u7ecf\u67e5\u8bc1\u7684\u5047\u6d88\u606f\u4e5f\u80fd\u62c9\u52a8\u80a1\u5e02\u4e0e\u52a0\u5bc6\u8d27\u5e01\uff0c\u73b0\u5728\u5e02\u573a\u90fd\u5728\u671f\u5f85\u5ddd\u666e\u653e\u8f6f\u8eab\u6bb5\uff0c\u53ea\u8981\u51fa\u73b0\u4e00\u4e1d\u5e0c\u671b\u5c31\u80fd\u63a8\u52a8\u80a1\u5e02\u4e0e\u52a0\u5bc6\u8d27\u5e01\u53cd\u5f39\uff0c\u591a\u7a7a\u529b\u9053\u4ea4\u4e92\u4f5c\u7528\u4e4b\u4e0b\uff0c\u76ee\u524d\u5e02\u573a\u6ce2\u52a8\u8d85\u4e4e\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u60f3\u50cf\u3002<\/p>\n

B. 04 \u6708 09 \u65e5 \u7f8e\u56fd\u6b63\u5f0f\u5f00\u59cb\u52a0\u5f81\u5173\u7a0e\uff0c\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\u4e0b\u6ed1\u81f3 76,000 \u7f8e\u5143<\/p>\n

\u7f8e\u56fd\u65b9\u9762\u6b63\u5f0f\u5c55\u5f00\u66f4\u5927\u89c4\u6a21\u7684\u8d38\u6613\u884c\u52a8\u3002\u6839\u636e\u7f8e\u56fd\u6d77\u5173\uff08CBP\uff09\u7684\u6700\u65b0\u58f0\u660e\uff0c\u81ea 4 \u6708 9 \u65e5\u51cc\u6668\u8d77\uff0c\u5c06\u5bf9 86 \u4e2a\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u8fdb\u53e3\u5546\u54c1\u5f81\u6536\u4e2a\u522b\u5316\u7684\u300c\u5bf9\u7b49\u5173\u7a0e\u300d\uff0c\u7a0e\u7387\u4ece 11% \u5230 50% \u4e0d\u7b49\uff0c\u5e76\u8bbe\u6709\u7279\u5b9a\u8c41\u514d\u6761\u6b3e\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u4e5f\u5305\u542b\u53f0\u6e7e\u7684 32% \u5ba2\u5236\u5316\u5173\u7a0e\uff0cCBP \u8868\u793a\uff0c\u76ee\u524d\u5df2\u7ecf\u5f81\u6536\u4e86\u8d85\u8fc7 48 \u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u4e2d\u56fd\u8fdb\u53e3\u5546\u54c1\u5173\u7a0e\u3001\u8d85\u8fc7 20 \u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u58a8\u897f\u54e5\u5546\u54c1\u5173\u7a0e\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u7ea6 8.61 \u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\u6765\u81ea\u5176\u4ed6\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u8fdb\u53e3\u5173\u7a0e\u3002<\/p>\n

\u9762\u5bf9\u7f8e\u56fd\u5173\u7a0e\uff0c\u52a0\u62ff\u5927\u5ba3\u5e03\u81ea 4 \u6708 9 \u65e5\u5bf9\u6765\u81ea\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u6c7d\u8f66\u5b9e\u65bd 25% \u7684\u62a5\u590d\u6027\u5173\u7a0e\uff0c\u91cd\u7533\u5148\u524d\u62a5\u590d\u7f8e\u56fd\u5bf9\u7b49\u5173\u7a0e\u7684\u653f\u7b56\uff0c\u8be5\u653f\u7b56\u9488\u5bf9\u7684\u662f\u4e0d\u7b26\u5408 USMCA \u7684\u7f8e\u56fd\u5236\u8f66\u8f86\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u5373\u4f7f\u7b26\u5408\u534f\u5b9a\u4f46\u542b\u6709\u975e\u52a0\u62ff\u5927\u6216\u58a8\u897f\u54e5\u6765\u6e90\u96f6\u4ef6\u7684\u6574\u8f66\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e5f\u610f\u5473\u8457\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u662f\u901a\u7528\u3001\u798f\u7279\u6216 Stellantis \u7b49\u7f8e\u56fd\u8f66\u5382\u5728\u7f8e\u56fd\u751f\u4ea7\u7684\u8f66\u8f86\uff0c\u53ea\u8981\u5176\u96f6\u7ec4\u4ef6\u5e76\u6765\u81ea\u975e\u5317\u7f8e\u5730\u533a\uff0c\u4e5f\u5c06\u9762\u4e34\u52a0\u5f81\u5173\u7a0e\u7684\u98ce\u9669\u3002<\/p>\n

\u53e6\u4e00\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u76ee\u524d\u5df2\u6709\u7ea6 70 \u4e2a\u56fd\u5bb6\u5c31\u6b64\u4e3b\u52a8\u4e0e\u767d\u5bab\u8054\u7cfb\uff0c\u8868\u8fbe\u5bf9\u65b0\u5173\u7a0e\u653f\u7b56\u7684\u5173\u5207\uff0c\u5e76\u5e0c\u671b\u5c55\u5f00\u8c08\u5224\uff0c\u5f00\u5f81\u5173\u7a0e\u7684\u63aa\u65bd\u4e5f\u4f7f\u5f97\u5168\u7403\u98ce\u9669\u8d44\u4ea7\u4ef7\u683c\u53d7\u5230\u538b\u529b\uff0c\u7f8e\u80a1\u7531\u6da8\u8f6c\u8dcc\uff0c\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\u5219\u4ece 79,000 \u7f8e\u5143\u4e0b\u6ed1\u81f3 76,000 \u7f8e\u5143\u3002<\/p>\n

C. 04 \u6708 10 \u65e5 \u5ddd\u666e\u5ba3\u5e03\u5173\u7a0e\u653f\u7b56\u5ef6\u540e 90 \u5929\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u4e0e\u52a0\u58a8\u9664\u5916<\/p>\n

\u7f8e\u56fd\u603b\u7edf\u5ddd\u666e\u5ba3\u5e03\u5bf9\u5927\u591a\u6570\u56fd\u5bb6\u5b9e\u65bd\u4e3a\u671f 90 \u5929\u7684\u90e8\u5206\u5173\u7a0e\u6682\u505c\u653f\u7b56\uff0c\u6fc0\u52b1\u7f8e\u80a1\u5468\u4e09\u5927\u6da8\u3002\u7eb3\u65af\u8fbe\u514b\u98d9\u5347 12%\uff0c\u6807\u666e 500 \u6da8 9.5%\uff0c\u9053\u743c\u6da8 7.9%\uff0c\u521b\u5386\u53f2\u6700\u5927\u5355\u65e5\u70b9\u6570\u6da8\u5e45\u3002\u5ddd\u666e\u4e8e\u793e\u7fa4\u5e73\u53f0\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u903e 75 \u56fd\u613f\u8c08\u5224\uff0c\u4e14\u672a\u62a5\u590d\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u6388\u6743\u964d\u4f4e\u4e92\u60e0\u5173\u7a0e\u81f3 10%\uff0c\u5e76\u6682\u505c\u5f81\u6536\u989d\u5916\u5173\u7a0e\u3002<\/p>\n

\u6b64\u4e3e\u7f13\u548c\u8d38\u6613\u7d27\u5f20\u60c5\u52bf\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u60c5\u7eea\u76f8\u5bf9\u4e50\u89c2\uff0c\u7136\u800c\u8fd9\u9879\u8c41\u514d\u4ec5\u9650\u4e8e\u5927\u591a\u6570\u56fd\u5bb6\uff0c\u5176\u4ed6\u56fd\u5bb6\u50cf\u662f\u4e2d\u56fd\u4ecd\u5c06\u9762\u4e34\u5173\u7a0e\u4e0a\u8c03\u81f3 125%\uff0c\u56e0\u5176\u9488\u5bf9\u7f8e\u56fd\u5546\u54c1\u52a0\u5f81\u62a5\u590d\u6027\u5173\u7a0e\u3002\u5176\u4ed6\u56fd\u5bb6\u5219\u6062\u590d\u81f3 10% \u57fa\u672c\u5173\u7a0e\uff0c\u7136\u800c\u52a0\u62ff\u5927\u4e0e\u58a8\u897f\u54e5\u4ecd\u5c06\u9762\u4e34 25% \u5173\u7a0e\u3002\u5ddd\u666e\u8868\u793a\u4e2d\u56fd\u5bf9\u5e02\u573a\u7f3a\u4e4f\u5c0a\u91cd\uff0c\u5e76\u79f0\u5bf9\u4e2d\u56fd\u52a0\u538b\u662f\u4e3a\u8c08\u5224\u4e89\u53d6\u6760\u6746\u3002<\/p>\n

\u7f8e\u80a1\u7684\u98d9\u6da8\u6e90\u81ea\u4e8e\u5148\u524d\u6709\u975e\u5e38\u591a\u4eba\u653e\u7a7a\uff0c\u73b0\u5728\u77ed\u7ebf\u77ac\u95f4\u906d\u5230\u5ddd\u666e\u560e\u7a7a\uff0c\u7eb7\u7eb7\u91c7\u53d6\u56de\u8865\u90e8\u4f4d\u5e76\u63a8\u5347\u6da8\u5e45\uff0c\u5bf9\u6b64\u52a0\u5bc6\u8d27\u5e01\u4e5f\u51fa\u73b0\u6b63\u5411\u53cd\u5e94\uff0c\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\u4e00\u8def\u4ece 76,000 \u7f8e\u5143\u56de\u6da8\u81f3 82,000 \u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u663e\u793a\u6295\u8d44\u4eba\u5bf9\u4e8e\u5ddd\u666e\u7684 90 \u5929\u6682\u7f13\u653f\u7b56\u677e\u4e86\u4e00\u53e3\u6c14\uff0c\u4f46\u540e\u7eed\u53d1\u5c55\u4e5f\u6ca1\u4eba\u53ef\u4ee5\u9884\u6599\uff0c\u964d\u4f4e\u6760\u6746\u4f9d\u65e7\u662f\u8f83\u597d\u7684\u7b56\u7565\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5168\u7403\u8d38\u6613\u7248\u56fe\u4f9d\u7136\u9762\u4e34\u91cd\u7ec4\u5371\u673a\uff0c\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\u662f\u6700\u4f73\u914d\u7f6e\u9009\u62e9<\/p>\n

\u9762\u5bf9\u5373\u5c06\u5230\u6765\u7684\u8c08\u5224\u6311\u6218\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u8d22\u653f\u90e8\u957f Scott Bessent \u5219\u8865\u5145\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u867d\u7136\u76ee\u524d\u9762\u4e34\u5e02\u573a\u52a8\u8361\uff0c\u4f46\u9884\u8ba1\u5728\u8fd9 90 \u5929\u5185\uff0c\u7f8e\u65b9\u5c06\u4e0e\u591a\u56fd\u8c08\u5224\uff0c\u6700\u7ec8\u5efa\u7acb\u66f4\u5177\u300c\u7a33\u5b9a\u6027\u4e0e\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u300d\u7684\u65b0\u8d38\u6613\u79e9\u5e8f\u3002\u8fd9\u6bb5\u300c\u6682\u505c\u671f\u300d\u5c06\u7528\u6765\u91cd\u65b0\u8bbe\u5b9a\u8c08\u5224\u7b56\u7565\u4e0e\u8d38\u6613\u7ed3\u6784\u3002<\/p>\n

\u4e0e\u6b64\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u4e5f\u79ef\u6781\u5f00\u62d3\u5176\u4ed6\u8d38\u6613\u4f19\u4f34\u5173\u7cfb\u3002\u6839\u636e\u5b98\u65b9\u8bf4\u6cd5\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u4e0e\u5370\u5ea6\u5df2\u4e8e 4 \u6708 11 \u65e5\u5c31\u7b2c\u4e00\u9636\u6bb5\u8d38\u6613\u534f\u8bae\u7684\u6846\u67b6\u8fbe\u6210\u5171\u8bc6\uff0c\u5e76\u9884\u671f\u53ef\u5728 90 \u5929\u5185\u5b8c\u6210\u8c08\u5224\u3002\u53cc\u65b9\u5c06\u900f\u8fc7\u7ebf\u4e0a\u4e0e\u5b9a\u671f\u4f1a\u8bae\u8fdb\u884c\u5bc6\u5207\u78cb\u5546\u3002\u5370\u5ea6\u5b98\u5458\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u76f8\u6bd4\u5176\u4ed6\u56fd\u5bb6\uff0c\u7f8e\u5370\u53cc\u8fb9\u8d38\u6613\u8c08\u5224\u5df2\u300c\u5927\u5e45\u9886\u5148\u300d\uff0c\u8fd9\u65b9\u9762\u5370\u5ea6\u62e5\u6709\u6700\u5c11\u7684\u4e2d\u56fd\u5f71\u54cd\u3001\u5e9e\u5927\u7684\u5185\u9700\u5e02\u573a\u4ee5\u53ca\u66f4\u4f73\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u5173\u7cfb\uff0c\u9884\u8ba1\u4f1a\u662f\u7b2c\u4e00\u6279\u62ff\u5230\u6700\u4f73\u7ecf\u8d38\u6761\u4ef6\u7684\u56fd\u5bb6\u3002<\/p>\n

\u76f8\u5bf9\u4e4b\u4e0b\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u9700\u8981\u524d\u5f80\u5176\u4ed6\u56fd\u5bb6\u62c9\u62e2\uff0c\u4e00\u540c\u5bf9\u6297\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u5173\u7a0e\u7ecf\u8d38\u6218\uff0c\u6700\u6709\u6548\u7387\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u4fbf\u662f\u62c9\u62e2\u4e1c\u5357\u4e9a\u56fd\u5bb6\u4e00\u540c\u52a0\u5165\u62b5\u6297\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u884c\u5217\uff0c\u800c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u56fd\u5bb6\u4e5f\u540c\u65f6\u906d\u5230\u7f8e\u56fd\u9ad8\u989d\u5bf9\u7b49\u5173\u7a0e\u7684\u5a01\u80c1\uff0c\u81ea\u7136\u613f\u610f\u62ff\u4e2d\u56fd\u4f5c\u4e3a\u8c08\u5224\u7b79\u7801\u4e0e\u7f8e\u56fd\u8fdb\u884c\u78cb\u5546\uff0c\u63a5\u4e0b\u6765\u4e2d\u56fd\u56fd\u5bb6\u4e3b\u5e2d\u4e60\u8fd1\u5e73\u5c06\u4e8e 4 \u6708 14 \u65e5\u81f3 18 \u65e5\u8bbf\u95ee\u8d8a\u5357\u3001\u9a6c\u6765\u897f\u4e9a\u4e0e\u67ec\u57d4\u5be8\uff0c\u8fd9\u662f\u4ed6\u81ea 2023 \u5e74\u5e95\u4ee5\u6765\u9996\u6b21\u51fa\u8bbf\u4e1c\u5357\u4e9a\u3002<\/p>\n

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\u5bf9\u6b64\u6b27\u76df\u6267\u59d4\u4f1a\u4e3b\u5e2d\u51af\u5fb7\u83b1\u6069\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u82e5\u4e0e\u7f8e\u56fd\u603b\u7edf\u5ddd\u666e\u7684\u5173\u7a0e\u8c08\u5224\u7834\u88c2\uff0c\u6b27\u76df\u5c06\u5bf9\u7f8e\u56fd\u6570\u4f4d\u79d1\u6280\u516c\u53f8\u5982 Meta \u4e0e Google \u5f81\u6536\u5e7f\u544a\u6536\u5165\u7a0e\uff0c\u5e76\u6269\u5927\u8d38\u6613\u6218\u81f3\u670d\u52a1\u9886\u57df\u3002\u6b27\u76df\u867d\u6682\u505c\u5bf9\u7f8e\u62a5\u590d\u63aa\u65bd 90 \u5929\uff0c\u4f46\u5df2\u542f\u52a8\u53cd\u80c1\u8feb\u5de5\u5177\u51c6\u5907\u53cd\u5236\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u9488\u5bf9\u7f8e\u56fd\u5e9e\u5927\u7684\u5bf9\u6b27\u670d\u52a1\u987a\u5dee\u8fdb\u884c\u8bfe\u7a0e\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u9650\u5236\u6b27\u6d32\u5e9f\u91d1\u5c5e\u51fa\u53e3\u81f3\u7f8e\u56fd\u3002<\/p>\n

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 <\/p>\n

\u4e0a\u5468\u56de\u987e \u2192\u3010MICA RESEARCH\u3011\u5168\u7403\u6027\u300c\u8870\u9000 + \u5bbd\u677e\u300d\u9884\u671f\u4e92\u62b5\uff0c\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\u6295\u8d44\u4ef7\u503c\u6d6e\u73b0<\/p>\n

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MICA Research \u7684\u5185\u5bb9\u5df2\u540c\u6b65\u4e8e Substack \u53d1\u5e03\uff0c\u4e0d\u60f3\u9519\u8fc7\u7b2c\u4e00\u624b\u6d88\u606f\uff0c\u8bf7\u70b9\u51fb\u8fd9\u91cc\u524d\u5f80\u8ba2\u9605\uff0c\u5468\u62a5\u4ee5\u53ca\u6bcf\u5929\u7684\u5e02\u573a\u53d1\u73b0\u5373\u4f1a\u900f\u8fc7 Email \u4f20\u9001\u7ed9\u60a8\u3002<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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